Oh what a night!
...late July back in 2007, what a very special time for me...Nah, it doesn't work, does it? Never mind, for there is rejoicing on the streets of Southall!

Or there probably would be if it wasn't p*ssing it down with rain. Call this a summer? I blame the Government.

What a horrific night for the Conservatives. If I were Bojo, I'd be crapping it at the moment - watching the Boy Dave sink faster than a glass of beaujolais nouveau down the gullet of George Best (God rest him). See Bojo? For all the media fawning over the nice hair styles, the big white I-worked-in-public-affairs-you-know smiles, and impeccably upper-class credentials, when it comes to where the voters want to slap an X in the ballot box, these things matter not at all. Fiscal stability and excellent public services or the garbled meanderings of a posho who thinks that this politics lark is a ripping extension of the jolly japes he had at the Oxford Union? Southall and Sedgefield have given us all an indication of what they think makes more sense, so if Boris reckons he can walk the mayoralty on the "I'm posh you know" platform then this should give him pause. Think on, Bojo. Think on.

But what a night for Labour, eh? We held both Ealing Southall and Sedgefield although our share of the vote fell by an average of 10.8 percentage points (apologies if I got this wrong; back of the cigarette packet style mathematics were used). The Tories - yes, the bright new shiny Tories with their eminently suitable candidate who enjoyed the almost obsessive backing of Dave - increased their share of the vote by a whopping 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

Incredible. An average increase of just over 0.5? Superb! And this was when the Tories appeared on the ballot paper as "Cameron's Conservatives"; a personal endorsement that this morning is looking like it might have been a bit of a risky investment. He gambled that the use of his name would see the Tories romping home to victory in Southall and a respectable second in Sedgefield instead of dropping from second place in the 2005 GE to third behind the Liberal Democrats. He lost, and now people are asking whether brand Cameron is more kiss of death than kiss of life to Tory party fortunes.

To compound his woe, Tony Lit was being presented as the standard bearer of the "new Conservatives" and the kind of Cameroonie candidate that won elections. Scraping a poor third isn't the way to persuade your activists that you are dragging the party in the right direction, and the comments on ConservativeHome (where the grumblings had started on even before the scale of the Ealing Massacre had been fully realised) seems to indicate that the grass-roots are none too impressed. One commentator warns ominously that it is "time to start producing results 'Dave' or we may want our party back." Ruh-roh! Tony Blair in 1994 he clearly ain't.

Whence from here? Freemania provides a comparison with Major in 1991: the Tories lost two by-election seats and their share of the vote fell by 17.9 percentage points, but they went on to win the 1992 GE the following year. We've done considerably better than that, so what's the chances of Brown capitalising on this (and the bounce) and calling an October election?

With the news that Miliband the Even Younger and wee Dougie Alexander are up to all sorts of political strategy shennanigans, there is an outside chance that Brown makes some sort of announcement at Conference and we have an autumn GE on a manifesto designed cheifly by the kiddoes mentioned above. For all his demands for a GE on the grounds that Brown wasn't elected by the populace (clearly he's never heard of Bagehot's The English Constitution, nor does he understand the basic principles of our political system) but crowned by the Labour Party, I reckon the last thing that Cameron actually wants is a snap election. Call his bluff Gordon and smack that great clunking fist into his shiny chops!

Meanwhile, a few weeks prior to this Cameron makes an IDS style "the quiet (posh) man has just turned up the volume!" speech and is knifed callously and deliciously by David "Cassius" Davis and his praetorian guard comprising of Iain Dale and ConservativeHome as soon as he ducks into the green room. Ah, yes. I've passed into the realm of fantasy but let me remain here a few moments more.

[smiles happily at thought of Cameron's messy political demise]

Mind you, an autumn election will be hard work; I don't think I've fully recovered from the last one yet.

In other good news, it appears that loans-for-lordships has hit the buffers. As the late, great Oscar Wilde once said, it would take a heart of stone not to laugh at Guido's predicament. He's been confidently pushing this one for what seems like forever, but like every other "campaign" he's waged (remember shop-a-SpAd? What happened there?) he's ended up with egg on his face. In traditional Guido style, he's chosen to assuage his pain by posting a picture of one of Those Labour Gays and inviting his readers post something grim about said gentleman. Still never mind. As Guido and the coppers in Yates' team are going to have time on their hands, I think they should look in to the concerning amount of apparent insider information that was appearing all over the bloggersphere about the investigation.

Up for it boys? No, I rather thought not.